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Single Family Starts Forecasted to Return to 1.3 Million

28 Jul 2016 9:00 AM | Craig Hoffman (Administrator)

Robert Dietz, NAHB’s new Chief Economist, reported to the PBA Board of Directors that the housing recovery is ongoing. Supported by favorable demographics, low interest rates, and rising housing demand, NAHB’s economics team sees additional growth for single-family construction in the years ahead.

However, the rate which that expansion can occur is limited by supply-side factors, most notably what Dietz refers to as the “3 L’s” (lots, labor and lending). The industry continues to rebuild its infrastructure of workers, sources of builder financing (AD&C), and buildable lots. Another challenge for builders remains rising regulatory costs, which Dietz reported have risen by approximately 30% over the last five years and now represent approximately one-quarter of a new home’s final price.

As builders overcome these challenges, NAHB’s forecast calls for single-family starts to return to a 1.3 million pace in the years ahead.


For more analysis from NAHB Economics, go to NAHB’s economics blog, Eye on Housing. Dietz also provides commentary on home building and housing on Twitter at @dietz_econ.

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